It could be done, but it is not clear who would buy the game and why, except for the commercially insignificant fringe group of existing ArM players. To answer OP's question, we are back to commercial viability. They have no conception about what it means to be human, and therefore cannot tell meaningful stories about human beings. Stories are imitations of some reality, and not solutions to a puzzle within an abstract ruleset, and this is exactly where computers fall short. Roleplaying is, as we know, different because it is not about playing the rules. It is not materially different from playing solitaire. The wrapping does not matter, because we learn to see the abstract mechanics underneath. Every game boils down to comprehending the mechanics and playing the rules. My sad experience, as someone who really did enjoy video games 25+ years ago, is that there is nothing new. It has been done before and it can be done again. That can be done, but I fail to see how covenant building would be different from any other kind of world building. However, OP was not, I think, calling for an RPG, but rather for mechanical game, tactical and/or strategic. The Atlas Forums provide a data set of past PbP sagas that could be used to train machine learning algorithms. and the challenge is hardly on edge cases and making something up computers do that already. Remembering your exact PC hardware specs is tough, deciphering the meaning of a PC games minimum requirements is challenging and combining those tasks together is almost impossible for mere mortals. We can be pretty confident that they can do more than we yet seen. But evaluating whether or not your computer meets or exceeds hardware requirements is our specialty. What computers can and cannot do is an interesting question, but somewhat off-topic. It's pretty impossible to have it both ways, never mind achieving the degree of flexibility and integration that the tabletop game has. So realistically you either need to do something like the Minecraft mod, where you have a relatively limited series of potential effects and it's the way you combine them and modify RDT that give you the a degree of complexity to experiment with in a practical use perspective, OR do a tech tree style game with the TeFos and various non-Hermetic things as the trees, with focus around pre-defined projects and how they affect the covenant situation and surroundings but without getting into the nitty gritty of adventures and stuff. And that's just within the scope of standard Hermetic magic, never mind that two Houses are explicitly oriented around bringing elements of other types of magic into the Order either through integration of their magic or directly inviting them into the Order, which itself heavily expands the necessary scope of a game if you care to capture those elements. And then all the carry-on effects of how certain components interact with the rest of the world, and with each other. For a computer game you pretty much have to implement everything you want to be possible up front, given the lack of a GM who can make even the smallest on-the-fly judgment calls about edge cases, modulate things, or make something up based on existing rules. Honestly I think it's that Ars Magica is all about the process of invention and pushing limits, and a computer game can't do that very well. It's not the same thing at all, but there's an Ars Magica mod for Minecraft that's sorta neat.
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